2024-12-13 04:35:16
Soochow securities interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: there is more room for imagination in the policy of steady growth next year. soochow securities said that the meeting of the Politburo in December put forward three new formulations, indicating that there is more room for imagination in the policy of steady growth next year. The first is to "stabilize the property market and stock market". On September 26th, the Politburo meeting described the real estate market and the capital market as "to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" and "to vigorously boost the capital market". In December, the Politburo meeting put forward more directly and clearly: "Stabilize the property market and the stock market". The second is "moderately loose monetary policy". After 2010, the keynote of China's monetary policy has been "steady" for a long time, and it has changed to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years, and monetary policy is promising. In 2024, the regulatory mechanism of monetary policy has undergone a framework change. Since 2024, loan lending has changed from supply constraint to demand constraint, and monetary policy has gradually weakened its focus on quantitative targets and paid more attention to the role of interest rate regulation. Therefore, the adjustment of "moderate easing" in 2024 may mean that monetary policy will continue to exert its strength from the "demand side" in 2025, and continue to promote the expansion of effective financing demand by maintaining sufficient liquidity supply and reducing financing costs. The third is to "strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment". The meeting pointed out: "enrich and improve the policy toolbox, strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment, and lay a good policy' combination boxing'". The expression "extraordinary countercyclical regulation" was first put forward.Interpretation of Guangfa Strategy December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this may well mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened. Specific to economic work, the first priority is to "expand domestic demand", and the expression of "stabilize the property market and stock market" is more straightforward: the importance of expanding domestic demand is unquestionable, which alleviates the concern of "whether to only resolve risks and lack demand stimulation" in the early stage of the market; In September, the Politburo meeting stated that the stock market should strive to boost the capital market and the property market should "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". This meeting was more direct in its determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market.Navigation warning: Military missions will be carried out in the northern part of the Yellow Sea in the Bohai Strait. According to the website of China Maritime Safety Administration, Dalian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 7: 00 on December 10 to 22: 00 on November 11, some waters in the northern part of the Yellow Sea in the Bohai Strait will be carried out on military missions, and it is forbidden to enter.
USD/JPY of USD/JPY hit 151, rising by 0.75% in the day.Turkish Foreign Minister: Turkey will continue to help Syrian refugees return to their homes "safely and voluntarily". Turkish Foreign Minister Feidan said on the 9th that Turkey will continue to make efforts to help Syrian refugees it receives return to their homes "safely and voluntarily". On the same day, Feidan said at the meeting of Turkish diplomatic envoys abroad that Turkey is willing to provide support for Syria's reconstruction. "We have always advocated ensuring peace and stability in Syria through international consensus." Feidan stressed that the extremist organization "Islamic State" and the terrorist organization PKK must not benefit from the turmoil in Syria.IShares China large-cap ETF rose 8%, Kraneshares Shanghai-Shenzhen-China Internet ETF rose 10.3%.
USD/CAD of USD/CAD fell by 1.41, with an intraday decrease of 0.39%.Spot silver stood at $32 per ounce, the first time since November 8, rising by 3.38% in the day.Valin Steel: It plans to sell 100% equity of Valin E-commerce for 480 million yuan. Valin Steel announced that it plans to sell 100% equity of Hunan Valin E-commerce Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, to the controlling shareholder Hunan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. at a transaction price of 480 million yuan. Valin e-commerce is mainly engaged in commodity trading business. On October 31, 2024, the audited net assets were 442 million yuan, and the estimated value-added rate was 8.60%. This transaction will help the company to focus on its core business, optimize resource allocation and improve asset quality and profitability. After the completion of this transaction, Valin E-commerce will become a new related party of the company, and it is expected that the daily related transactions between the company and Hunan Iron and Steel Group will increase every year.